More than most years, it’s hard to look ahead to the next year, to 2021, without looking back at 2020. A global pandemic, a massive economic collapse, a bear market, a surprisingly sharp reversal, a hotly contested election where passions ran high, the impact of lockdowns—it was an unusual year of extraordinary challenges. In 2021 it’s time to restart the engines, but things are going to look different, feel different. 2020 has changed us, the way we do business, the way we connect. It’s also shown us our constants, what works for us, and what we hold on to.
In 2021 we restart the engine, but we’re not driving toward the same world we left behind in 2019. It’s not even our destination. There has been damage to areas of the economy that may never fully recover, but there are other areas that will adapt, reinvent themselves, and help reinvigorate growth. In Outlook 2021: Powering Forward, we talk about stocks and bonds, the economy, and the post-election policy environment, but in the background will be new challenges, new opportunities, and new ways of doing things.
Thankfully, one constant has been the value of personal and professional relationships, even if we’ve had to learn how to connect in new ways. Sound financial advice offered a long-term map for many investors that helped them from getting off course in a turbulent 2020. There are still risks to navigate in 2021, but it’s time to get back on the road.
COVID-19
Over the course of the year, we have seen an increased understanding of how to contain the COVID-19 virus, important progress on how to treat those hospitalized, and promising developments on treatments and potential vaccines. Nevertheless, conditions have worsened heading into late 2020, with a record number of confirmed cases and increased hospitalizations. We believe we will see continued advances in 2021 that will further limit the impact of the virus by the end of the year, but it will be a process. In the meantime, the goal remains keeping the economy as open as possible while making sure that our healthcare system doesn’t get overwhelmed and the most vulnerable are protected.
FORECASTS
We expect global central banks to remain supportive and for individual economies to continue to refine their responses to COVID-19. In the United States,
what will likely be a divided government may help limit the size of any tax hikes and regulation while still supporting additional fiscal stimulus that may include high-priority items for both Democrats and Republicans. We could also see movement toward a similar deal on infrastructure. Greater clarity on trade may make it easier for some companies to do business, but more challenging regulatory environment may be an offset.
For more investment insights, read the full Outlook 2021: Powering Forward.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Please read the full LPL Research Outlook 2021: Powering Forward publication for additional description and disclosure. The opinions, statements and forecasts presented herein are general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing. Any forward-looking statements including the economic forecasts may not develop as predicted and are subject to change based on future market and other conditions. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. Diversification does not protect against market risk. Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt or securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory. The PE ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio. Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability. Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single most important variable in determining a share’s price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a falling market. Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price. Bond yields are subject to change. Certain call or special redemption features may exist which could impact yield. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate, and credit risk, as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features. Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk. Fixed Income Definitions Credit quality is one of the principal criteria for judging the investment quality of a bond or bond mutual fund. As the term implies, credit quality informs investors of a bond or bond portfolio’s credit worthiness, or risk of default. Credit ratings are published rankings based on detailed financial analyses by a credit bureau specifically as it relates the bond issue’s ability to meet debt obligations. The highest rating is AAA, and the lowest is D. Securities with credit ratings of BBB and above are considered investment grade.